Vote for change?

The Belgian voters had some surprises in store during yesterday's parliamentary elections. It was widely expected that the parties making up the disastrous government of prime minister Guy Verhofstadt would lose. And lose they did, except for the liberal MR. That's a first discrepancy. While the Flemish voted for the opposition and against the government, the French-speakers dealt a mild rebuke to the scandal-plagued PS and made the MR the biggest party in Wallonia.

Second discrepancy: Sp.a lost 7.2% and felt it was a devastating defeat, mainly because they hadn't expected it. Sp.a chairman Johan Vande Lanotte announced his resignation and declared that the party would not join a new government. Verhofstadt's Open VLD lost 6.6%, a little less than expected, and did not perceive it as a big loss. Vehofstadt himself conceded defeat because it is inconceivable that he would return as prime minister in the next government, but the other Flemish liberals are ready to join a new government, never mind the voters, who rebuked them.

The big winner was Yves Leterme, who won close to 800,000 personal votes. His party, now renamed CD&V, lost big eight years ago. Voters wanted change and handed a victory to the “Purple Coalition” of VLD and Sp.a. Now the voters are unhappy with the government and expect change from CD&V. Well, that's an illusion. How can CD&V offer change instead of more of the same disastrous policies?

There is more. Leterme promised a further radical reform of the Belgian state, transferring more power to the regions. But to do that he needs a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, which he doesn't have. Only a tripartite government would have enough votes, but that is unrealistic as the Flemish socialists have chosen not to join the next government. They could support the reform from the opposition benches, but that would not give them any credits at the next elections in 4 years. If Leterme cannot fulfill his promises, he will lose big in 2011.

And of course there was the big surprise of Lijst Dedecker, gaining 5 seats in the House and one in the Senate. Even in his wildest dreams, Jean-Marie Dedecker had only expected to get at most one seat. It shows that some voters like to support an underdog. The question is whether he will be able to built a lasting party.

It will be a long hot summer before the next Belgian government is formed.