North Korean shut-down

North Korea has shut down its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon after having received the first shipment of 6,200 tons of fuel oil. Inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have verified the shut-down and installed monitoring equipment to ensure that the reactor is not being restarted. (The Guardian: “Nuclear distraction”), (The New York Times: “Inspectors Check North Korean Nuclear Reactor”), (The Independent: “A better way to defuse Pyongyang's nuclear bomb”)

I have always argued that North Korea has the right to develop nuclear weapons as long as those nations which already possess nuclear weapons do nothing to reduce and finally eliminate their arsenals. But it is not because you have a right to do something, that you also have to do it. The shutdown of the Yongbyon reactor is a welcome development. But it is of course only the beginning and not the end of the process. Will North Korea declare its (perhaps non-existent) uranium enrichment program? Will it give up the atom bombs it has already developed.

Some say the reactor shut-down is a success for the Bush diplomacy. Nothing is further from the truth. Clinton was already negotiating with the North Koreans and even contemplating a visit just before he stepped down as president. The problem could have been solved years ago, without the North Koreans developing nuclear weapons. And even if Kim Jong-il turns out to be willing to give up his nukes, he will surely exact a high price.

The only thing you can say is that in this case Bush did not try to solve the problem by going to war. The reason is he couldn't because of the vicinity of China. He was forced by the circumstances to use diplomacy, not because he choose to do so. In the end, a peace treaty will have to be signed to formally end the Korean War. The American president will have to shake hands with the North Korean chairman. That at least is a duty Bush will be happy to leave to his successor.