C'est Sarko!

The French have chosen and the result is 53% for Nicolas Sarkozy and 47% for Ségolène Royal. They voted in droves, at a seldom seen participation rate of 85%. The difference between the two candidates of 6 percentage points is at least wider than the margin Bush used to squeeze into the presidency – twice. Still, like the Americans, the French will soon come to regret their choice. Once, a long long time ago, the voting Americans voted 50-50 for Bush. The popularity of the liar-in-chief has now plummeted to 28% and no doubt will be plummeting further to reach the depths of his brother-in-arms Ehud Olmert.

Would Ségo have been a better choice? Yes, for France's economy. Sarkozy will push the economy further into crisis with his Thatcherite medicine. Yes, for social peace. Sarkozy will charge ahead like a bull, antagonizing all immigrants – although he himself is the son of one – and lead France to the breaking point. Yes, violence will erupt, although it was probably not very clever for Ségo to predict it would...

As already mentioned, the world at large was conspicuously absent from the debate between Sarko and Ségo. Ségo put too much water in her (French) wine to please the centrist voters, taking an even more hawkish stand on Iran for example than Sarkozy. But while Sarkozy is likely to follow Bush's lead and possibly draw France into a war with Iran, Ségo – despite her rhetoric – would probably have retreated at the last moment, realizing that a Left-wing president couldn't stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the evil American Empire. While Sarko declared that “France will always be next to them [his American friends] when they need us”.

Now the gloves are off. What is Sarkozy going to change? One conservative president (Chirac) substituted for another (Sarkozy)? There will be no change, apart from the fact that Chirac stood up to Bush, while Sarkozy won't. Sarkozy, far from giving France back its pride, will lead the country along a ruinous path.

No, the voters are not always right. Just ask the Americans.

(CNN: Sarkozy: I have mandate for change); (France 24: Nicolas Sarkozy élu président de la République); (The Guardian: A sharp right turn); (The Independent: M. Sarkozy – a divisive force whose task is to unite).

Sarko ou Ségo (II)

Yesterday the two rivals vying for the French presidency squared off in a televised debate. I didn't watch, but I printed out the transcript of the debate in French (Libération: La transcription exhaustive du débat) Perhaps it's a waste op paper... 48 pages... Anyway, read on...

Reading the transcript has some advantages. You can focus on the content without being distracted by emotional outbursts or the pretty face of Ségo. So let's focus on the ideas and ideology of the two contestants.

An inordinate amount of time was wasted on the 35 hour week. This issue has been settled once and for all 150 years ago by an old friend of mine, Karl Marx. Both of them, Ségo et Sarko were of course blissfully ignorant of the Marxist classics. They'd better return to primary school in Marxism before uttering any more nonsense.

The obscure discussion of the 5th or the 6th republic is irrelevant. Talking about immigrants, Sarkozy should really shut up. Son of an Hungarian immigrant, he got through the door and now wants to close it with a “clack” for anybody else. Either you open the doors of France to immigrants and Sarkozy gets a chance to become president, or you don't and Sarkozy is off-line. If he closes the door to immigrants, he is closing the door to himself. Period. Disqualified.

Sarkozy wants to close the door to products imported from countries which don't respect the Kyoto protocol. All right, block all imports from the U.S.? Truth or dare?

Sarkozy doesn't want Turkey in the EU because it's a county of Asia Minor. A stupid boundary! I bet he would like to have Israel as a member of the EU. And Ségo would probably agree. Do we need to say more?

Really disgusting is that Royal is even more hawkish on Iran than Sarkozy. She wants to block Iran from enriching uranium for peaceful purposes, thereby violating international laws. She wants to be more strict than Sarkozy. Vying to be the lap dog of Bush! Not one word was “wasted” on Iraq. Not one word of condemnation of Bush, the war criminal. On Darfur, Royal wants to put pressure on China, threatening a boycott of the 2008 Olympics, although not endorsing a boycott... What kind of shit is this? Interference by the “international community” or the “West” in Darfur won't solve anything. It can only make things worse. The “West” wants to crush the “Islamists”. Do we need another ill advised interference? Remember Iraq?

“Non” to Sarkozy, “non” to Royal... there's only one word the French need to remember on May 6.

Ségo ou Sarko (I)

Or put another way: madame ou monsieur. Or simply: left or right.

The French voters clearly didn't want a re-run of the second stage in the last presidential election in 2002, where the choice was between Chirac and Le Pen. The whole French left had to hold their noses and vote for Chirac to prevent a victory of the fascist candidate Le Pen. This time, a record 84.5% of eligible voters turned out to vote, to guarantee that their favorite would reach the second round.

In the first stage of this year's presidential election, the small leftist parties suffered badly, because many on the left voted for Ségolène Royal to prevent a second stage run-off between Sarkozy and Bayrou or Sarkozy and Le Pen. The once mighty French Communist Party was nearly obliterated with just 1.93% of the vote. France must surely be the only country in the whole world with three, that is THREE (3) Trotskyist parties contesting the vote. Arlette Laguiller of Lutte Ouvrière made a disgraceful exit. The winner on the far left was Besançenot of the Ligue Communiste Révolutionnaire with 4.08% of the vote.

On the far right, the French voters created an even bloodier bloodbath. Le Pen lost no less than one million votes. He failed to come out on top in even one département. Le Front National is history, set back twenty years with only 10% of the vote.

The big question now is what will happen on May 6. Will the winner be Ségo or Sarko? There's only a 5% difference between Sarkozy (31%) and Royal (26%). Ségo will get all the leftist votes and the votes of the migrants and their decedents. No immigrant in his right mind will ever vote for Nicholas Sarkozy, who called them 'scum'. But this guy will of course get most of the votes which went to Le Pen in the first round, although not all, because some disillusioned die-hards will boycott the second round. That leaves both candidates with about an equal number of votes. The outcome will be decided by those who voted for Bayrou. Will the majority tilt to the left or the right?

I believe Ségolène Royal has a good chance of winning, because the French want a change after 12 years of the Chirac presidency. Sarkozy is sometimes describes as an American neocon with a French passport. The French don't want a neocon president. But if Royal wins, it will be a very narrow victory. French society is split in two between left and right, and geographically Sarkoland in the north, east and south and Sègoland in the west and south-west. Even Paris is split. The French better take care to keep out the U.S. Army or it will start building a wall... If Sarkozy wins, the whole of France could erupt in riots. And Ségolène could surf to victory on a campaign of “ tout sauf Sarkozy” (TSS) – anything but Sarkozy. In the end, not the TGV, but the TSS could bring Ségolène Royal to power.

(The Guardian: Forever France; A clear choice) (The Independent: Sarkozy and Royal go through as 84 per cent turnout sets new poll record; Leading article: A result that shows democracy is alive and well)