The China Fantasy

Most books on China's politics and economy can be divided into two categories or put onto two separate bookshelves. “Things in China are headed in the right direction [...] China's economic development will lead inexorably to an opening of China's political system.” Free trade will lead to a democratic system as we know it in the West. In The China Fantasy - How Our Leaders Explain Away Chinese Repression, James Mann calls this the “Soothing Scenario”. Proponents of the second one, the “Upheaval Scenario”, believe that China will collapse under the weight of corruption, political unrest, farmers' protest, environmental degradation, ethnic strife and the growing gap between the rich and the poor.

James Mann opens the introduction to his book with the assertion that “This book is about the China I have encountered outside of China,” in the leading capitals and corporate headquarters of the world. In other words, a perception of China and where foreigners believe the country should be heading. Mann has been the correspondent of the Los Angeles Times in Beijing in the 1984-1987 period and is the author of Beijing Jeep, About Face and Rise of the Vulcans.

Both scenarios described by Mann are wrong. Free trade will not inevitably lead to democracy as defined in the West and China will not collapse anytime soon. James Mann is therefore looking for a “third way”. The problem is that it is a least as flawed as the first two scenarios. Mann is afraid that free trade will not lead to democracy and believes that the U.S. should denounce China's so-called “authoritarian regime” and its human rights abuses and impose democracy on China for the benefit of the Chinese people, which – according to him – is longing for it to happen. He criticizes Western companies doing business with China for not promoting political liberalization. We may ask: is that a task for foreign investors? As long as they follow international labor conventions and the laws of the country, foreign companies' aim is to make money, not regime change.

Perhaps the author stayed away from China for too long. The views in the corridors of power in Washington, Paris and Berlin are necessarily distorted. James Mann is doing nothing to correct them. He only adds a third meaningless scenario.To his credit, he is not arguing that “China will turn into some unimaginable military threat to the United States in the future”, as some neo-conservatives claim.