Thursday, February 15, 2007

It's a deal


Negotiators at the Six Party Talks finally reached a settlement. But putting things on paper is one thing, getting them implemented quite another. According to a Chinese diplomat, what the North Koreans want most is “money and respect”. (CNN: China diplomat: North Korea gets 'money and respect').

Money there is plenty of, more than USD300 million in aid, including 50,000 tons of heavy fuel, if North Korea shuts down its plutonium production facility and allows international monitors. Another 950,000 tons will follow if it disables the reactor and declares all its nuclear programs. It can keep the atom bombs it has produced so far.

The first question is whether the North Koreans will ever get anything. In the 1994 Agreed Framework, they were promised two light-water reactors which never materialized. Respect is something they are never going to get from the Bush administration. In fact, the Neocons, led by John Bolton, are already lambasting the agreement as giving in too much to the North Koreans and undermining the sanctions they had pushed through the U.N. Security Council four months ago.

The deal seems to have split the Neocons: Bush says it's good, Bolton says it's bad. Opponents of the deal are likely to create an incident, so the U.S. doesn't has to keep its side of the agreement.

The U.S. wants North Korea to give up its few nuclear bombs and shut down its nuclear reactor. Washington is prepared to play games to get what it wants. Pyongyang is happy to play along to try to retain as much as possible. So that's what it is: playing games. If the U.S. would be really serious in solving the problem, it would stop its hostile policy and establish diplomatic relations with Pyongyang. The deal could have been reached several years ago if Washington wanted it. Today the Bush administration still doesn't want it. But with preparations for a nuclear attack on Iran in full swing, Washington has to keep the North Koreans quiet for the time being.

Condoleezza Rice has said that the deal would not have been possible if they hadn't swung the Chinese over to the U.S. side. Now that is definitely a bad development.

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